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Scenario Planning Of The Professional Identity Of Accountants In The Era Of Digitalization
Mohammad Salari Abarghoei1 , Nasim Shahmoradi2 , Akram Taftiyan3
1- PhD Candidate, Department of Accounting, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran, salarimohammad1363@gmail.com
2- Assistant Professor, Department of Accounting, Yazd Branch, Islamic Azad University, Yazd, Iran. (Corresponding Author) , nasim.shahmoradi@iau.ac.ir
3- Associate Professor,Department of Accounting,Yazd Branch,Islamic Azad University,Yazd, Iran, Taftiyan@iauyazd.ac.ir
Abstract:   (293 Views)
Technology is evolving rapidly, and this has led to changes in the business environment, including accounting. The digitalization of the profession poses different challenges for accountants, which are very important to identify and keep up with. This study aims to present possible scenarios in the accounting profession if the digitalization process continues. This research uses a scenario-writing approach. Initially, a list of drivers was extracted from scientific articles published in this field using document mining and library studies. Then, using Fuzzy Delphi, 34 main drivers were prioritized and evaluated with the opinions of professional and academic accounting experts who had a history of working in the field of digitalization of the profession. In order to examine the mutual effects in this research, the cross-effects analysis method was used. For reliability, the Felice Kappa coefficient was used, which indicated the desirable reliability of the questionnaire. For this purpose, paired comparison questionnaires were distributed among 41 professional and academic accounting experts and data analysis was performed using MicMac software, which led to the drawing of an interpretive structural model of accountants' professional identity in the face of the digitalization of the profession. Also, the dependency power influence diagram reveals a layered model of drivers affecting the future of accountants' professional identity in the era of digitalization of the profession, and uncertainties are identified based on the analysis of key drivers. The three drivers of digital strategies, digital paradox, and professional ecosystem with the highest percentage of consensus and the lowest amount of convergence of opinions have been selected as the final most influential factors. Subsequently, future scenarios have been designed using scenario planning and compatibility analysis methods. The time frame of this research was 2025.The results show that digitalization, if properly managed, can lead to an increase in digital strategies, digital paradoxes, and professional ecosystems in the accounting profession. On the one hand, increased sentiment analysis can help accountants better understand how the public and stakeholders feel about the future of the accounting profession, and on the other hand, accountants' collaboration with professionals, clients, and other stakeholders will become smoother. This information can help accountants and professional organizations develop appropriate strategies to address challenges and exploit opportunities.
Keywords: Digitalization, accounting, professional identity, future research, driving force, scenario writing
     
Type of Study: Research | Subject: Special
Received: 2025/02/20 | Accepted: 2026/09/22
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